The global diamond market is navigating one of the most consequential periods in its modern history. A market that was once defined by the universal dominance of theround brillianthas fractured into a complex landscape of regional divergence, shape-specific demand, and a widening quality divide. Understanding these dynamics is no longer optional for traders, retailers, and investors, it is the foundation of commercial survival.
This analysis examines the forces reshaping diamond demand across the world's major markets, explores the extraordinary rise of fancy-shaped diamonds, and provides actionable intelligence for navigating a market projected to grow from $1.39 billion in 2025 to $1.45 billion in 2026 at a compound annual growth rate of 4.7%.
The Global Diamond Market: A Snapshot of 2026
The natural diamond market in 2026 is projected at approximately $112 billion, withnatural diamondscontinuing to lead premium segments. Yet beneath this headline figure lies a market characterized by stark regional and category-level divergence. According to the Diamond Index, 1-carat diamond prices stabilized in July 2026, ending 13 straight months of declines a significant signal that the market may have found its floor.
The Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, which accounts for approximately 99.8% of global rough diamond production and trade, reported total production of 98.8 million carats in 2025, with Russia (31.9%), Botswana (15.7%), Angola (15.4%), and Canada (14.3%) as the leading producers. On the trade side, India remains the world's largest importer of rough diamonds by volume, accounting for 40.24% of global imports, followed by the United Arab Emirates at 34.58%.
However, trade volumes tell only part of the story. The real narrative lies in the quality divide: very well-cut fancy shapes are rare and selling at significant premiums, while poorly proportioned stones are becoming increasingly illiquid.
Regional Deep Dive: What's Happening in Each Major Market
United States: Rounds Outperform in Trading, But Retail Tells a Different Story
The US market presents a paradox. On the wholesale trading floor,round diamondsare outperforming fancies in trading activity, as manufacturers have increased output of fancy shapes to meet retail demand. Dealers report steady demand for 2-carat and larger stones, including very large diamonds and vintage cuts.
Yet the retail narrative is more complex. According to the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), elongated silhouettes, ovals, andemerald cutsare gaining ground, while warmer-toned diamonds champagne and soft yellow hues are being integrated into mainstream assortments rather than treated as niche.
The US market also shows strong advance orders for round and fancy-shape, D-F, IF-VS diamonds for high-end designers, with a positive trend emerging in the 1 to 1.99 ct., F-J, VS-SI range.
Key takeaway for US buyers: Round diamonds remain the backbone of bridal, but fancy shapes are the growth engine. For those seeking certified natural diamonds, theCaratXmarketplace offers access to a wide range of carat weights and shapes from trusted sellers across 18+ countries.
US diamond imports, however, declined dramatically in 2025, dropping 50% year-over-year to $5.7 billion, the sharpest decline among the world's top ten diamond-importing nations. This contraction reflects broader economic uncertainty and tariff-related hesitation, though demand for premium categories remains resilient.
Belgium:
The Antwerp diamond trade faced significant headwinds in 2025, with total trade value falling to USD 19.07 billion, a decline of approximately 22.4% compared to 2024. The challenges are multifaceted: growing availability of cheaper synthetic alternatives, sanctions on Russian diamonds, and shifting trade flows have all diverted activity away from the historic Belgian hub.
Yet within this contraction lies opportunity. High-quality 0.30–0.70 ct. diamonds are performing well, while lower-quality stones are moving more slowly. Sentiment is improving as prices rebound and discounts improve, withround diamondsof 2 ct. and larger moving steadily. Buyers are notably picky about cut quality in 1 ct. and larger goods, a reflection of the broader market polarization between well-cut and poorly cut stones.
For Belgian traders: The emphasis on quality over quantity means that precision cutting and certification are now primary value drivers.
Explore certified natural diamonds onCaratXto access goods that meet the highest standards of cut and clarity.
Israel: Quiet but Steady, with a Tax Reform on the Horizon
Trading in Israel remains quiet but steady, with buyers mainly seeking goods that are in short supply while bread-and-butter items move slowly. The market has faced existential pressures: polished diamond imports fell 32.9% over the past year, while exports dropped 35.7%. The Israel Diamond Exchange has operated at reduced capacity amid geopolitical tensions.
If implemented, this reform could restore Israel's competitive position in the global diamond trade by eliminating tax barriers that have hampered its international competitiveness.
For Israeli traders: The proposed free-trade zone represents a potential inflection point. Sellers looking to expand their international reach should consider registering on CaratX to access buyers in 18+ countries.
India: Domestic Demand Supports Larger Rounds
India's diamond market presents a study in contrasts. Larger round diamonds are performing well, supported by robustdomestic jewelrydemand, while smaller sizes show mixed demand. Domestic Indian diamond business remains solid, even as overseas trading shows signs of sluggishness.
India's gem and jewellery exports rose 19.64% in November 2025 to $2.51 billion, led by diamonds, according to GJEPC data. The overall gross export of cut and polished diamonds registered an increase of 38.03% to USD 919.74 million. Yet the industry faces profitability challenges, with natural diamond demand remaining stable but difficulties stemming from destocking, weaker Chinese retail activity, and earlier over-purchasing.
A significant structural shift is underway: India's diamond manufacturing sector, which polishes approximately 90% of the world's diamonds by volume, showed exceptional restraint in early 2026, with rough-diamond imports falling approximately 23% year-on-year during the first quarter. This disciplined approach directly supported polished prices for smaller stones.
For Indian traders: Domestic demand for larger rounds and the growinglab-grownsegment present dual opportunities. The CaratX marketplace connects Indian sellers with international B2B and B2C buyers seeking certified natural diamonds.
Hong Kong: Steady Prices and Luxury Demand for Larger Stones
Hong Kong's diamond market is showing signs of recovery, with prices becoming steadier and nearly half of industry respondents expecting positive performance in the natural diamond market over the next 12 months. Buyers are seeking 1–3 ct. round diamonds, while luxury customers are looking for larger stones, fancy shapes, and rare colored diamonds.
Steady interest is reported in 1.70 to 3 ct., F-I, VS-SI diamonds in oval, emerald, andmarquiseshapes. The local market is picking up ahead of holidays and amid an influx of overseas visitors. However, goods under 1 ct. remain weak, and Chinese appetite for 1.50 ct. and larger stones is improving, though mainland retailers continue to discount ahead of festive seasons.
For Hong Kong buyers and sellers: The recovery path is clear but selective. Premium natural diamonds particularly larger fancy shapes and rare colored stones are the categories driving value.
Browse the CaratX collection of fancy-shaped diamonds to access these high-demand categories.
Fancy-Shaped Diamonds: The Definitive Market Trend of 2025–2026
Fancy-shaped diamonds are no longer a niche alternative to the round brilliant. They represent a commanding 52% of luxury purchases, according to the Gemological Institute of America's 2025 Global Diamond Report. This seismic shift is not a fleeting trend but a fundamental evolution in consumer behavior, pricing structures, and supply chain dynamics.
Ovals, Marquises & Emeralds:
Long fancy shapes such as Oval, Marquise, and Emerald are consistently doing better than rounds in 2 ct. and larger sizes. High-quality Marquises,long Radiants, andlong Cushionsare in short supply, creating upward pressure on prices.
Oval diamondshave experienced extraordinary demand growth. Rapaport Trade Member search behavior reveals that Oval searches rose from 1,877,686 in 2024 to 2,669,103 in 2025 a +42.1% increase.
Ovals now represent nearly half of all diamond shapes sold in some market segments, with the average carat weight rising to 1.75 ct. from 1.30 ct. the previous year. The most requested length-to-width ratios fall between 1.45 and 1.55. US Oval prices are trading 5% to 10% higher than those of Pears.
Marquise diamondsare currently the most expensive fancy shape on the market, commanding premium pricing due to their rarity in top-quality cuts and their dramatic elongated silhouette.
High-quality marquises with perfectly symmetrical wings and no "bow-tie" effect are in critically short supply. The GIA notes that Marquise cuts require masterful precision to avoid the bow-tie effect, explaining the severe shortage of well-cut stones.
Emerald cutsare seeing a strong resurgence, with their clean, architectural lines and "hall of mirrors" clarity appealing to a market leaning toward understated luxury. Emerald cuts are also performing well in sizes of 2 carats and above, alongside Ovals and Marquises.
For buyers seeking these high-demand shapes: Explore the CaratX collections of Oval diamonds, Marquise diamonds, and Emerald cut diamonds to access certified stones that meet the market's exacting quality standards.
Long Cushion Cuts:
There is a distinct bifurcation in the Cushion market. Square cushions show stable but not explosive demand, while Long Cushions are "easy to sell" and trading at a 20% to 25% premium over their square counterparts. This premium reflects their superior finger coverage and the elongating effect that combines the romantic look of a cushion with the visual benefits of a radiant cut.
For traders: Long Cushions represent one of the most reliable value propositions in the current market. View available Cushion diamonds on CaratX to explore inventory and pricing.
Marquise & Long Radiants: The Supply Crunch
High-quality Marquises and long Radiants are in acutely short supply, leading to rapid sales and inflated premiums. This shortage in top-quality "long" models across various shapes is likely to support and potentially drive prices even higher in the coming months, creating a window of opportunity for holders of such inventory.
For sellers: If you hold inventory in these categories, the current market conditions represent an exceptional opportunity to realize premium pricing. Register on CaratX to list your diamonds and reach international buyers.
Princess Cuts: Signs of Improvement, But Prices Remain Low
Princess cutsare showing signs of improvement in demand, but prices remain low. Once the dominant fancy shape for contemporary settings, demand has softened relative to elongated alternatives. This may represent a cyclical trend or a more permanent shift toward softer, more organic shapes in jewelry design.
Antique Cuts: The Taylor Swift Effect
Antique cuts are gaining popularity for their vintage charm and unique character. Interest in old-cut diamonds surged dramatically following Taylor Swift's August 2025 engagement, with online searches for old mine-cut diamonds reportedly rising nearly 10,000%.
Elongated old mine and cushion cuts remain the most sought-after antique shapes, prized for their softer, irregular shapes and distinctive character. As the Natural Diamond Council notes, consumers are increasingly drawn to unique diamonds that express their individuality and are clearly natural, even with slight imperfections.
For collectors and retailers: Antique cuts represent a growing niche with significant upside. The CaratX marketplace offers a curated selection of natural diamonds across a wide range of shapes and styles.
What's Driving Demand Worldwide?
Several interconnected forces are reshaping diamond demand across global markets.
The Rise of the Individual Consumer -
Millennial and Gen Z buyers view their diamond purchases as extensions of their personal identity. A fancy shape diamond whether the romantic oval, the dramatic marquise, or the architectural emerald cut serves as a unique signature. This desire for self-expression is a primary engine of the fancy shape revolution.
Generation Z (aged 18–28) has emerged as a key growth driver in major markets. In India, Gen Z contributes 51% of total diamond market value, up 19% since 2022, driven by self-purchasing women outside the wedding segment. In the US, gifting represented 44% of diamond sales in 2025, up from 35% two years earlier, while self-purchases accounted for 31%.
The Illusion of Size -
Elongated shapes have a larger surface area per carat than a round brilliant. A well-cut 2-carat oval can have length and width dimensions that make it appear comparable to a 2.5-carat round. This optical advantage is a powerful value proposition for consumers seeking maximum visual impact within a budget.
Celebrity Influence and Digital Amplification -
High-profile engagements featuring elongated cushions, radiant cuts, and pears have created powerful aspirational benchmarks. The "Zendaya effect" following the actress's 5-carat oval-cut naturaldiamond engagement ringprompted British Vogue to anoint the East-West ring as "2025's defining jewellery trend". The proliferation of fancy shapes across Instagram and Pinterest has normalized and glamorized these alternatives.
The Lab-Grown Disruption -
The rise of laboratory-grown diamonds has fundamentally altered the competitive landscape.Lab-grown diamondsnow cost 73% to 83% less than their natural counterparts, and 70% of engagement ring diamonds in the US are now lab-grown. This price pressure has forced the natural diamond industry to emphasize what lab-grown diamonds cannot replicate: the rarity, provenance, and emotional significance of natural stones.
The GIA responded to this shift in 2025 by discontinuing the traditional 4Cs grading scale for synthetic diamonds, replacing it with a simpler classification system of "premium" and "standard". This regulatory adjustment acknowledges the fundamental differences between natural and lab-grown categories.
For natural diamond traders: The quality divide is your opportunity. Certified natural diamonds with exceptional cut and clarity command premiums that lab-grown stones cannot match. Explore CaratX's certified natural diamonds to source goods that meet the highest standards.
For Buyers:
Browse our curated selection of oval diamonds with verified proportions and certifications:Shop Oval Diamonds
Shop loose diamonds from our global marketplace:Loose Diamonds
Explore fine jewelry and gemstones:Shop Jewelry
For Sellers:
Register on the CaratX marketplace to start selling to B2B and B2C buyers in 18+ countries:Register as a Seller
Learn about our seller plans and pricing:CaratX Seller Plans
Sell jewelry internationally through our platform:Start Selling
Start Selling Diamonds Internationally -
The global diamond market rewards those who understand its nuances. Whether you are a retailer seeking premium inventory, a wholesaler looking to expand your buyer base, or a manufacturer seeking international distribution, CaratX provides the platform to connect with buyers across 18+ countries.
Sellers: Register on CaratX to start selling to B2B and B2C buyers internationally. Choose from flexible plans designed for businesses of all sizes.
Buyers: Shop natural diamonds and gemstones from our curated marketplace at unbeatable prices.
Jewelry Sellers: Sell jewelry internationally to buyers through our CaratX seller plan.
Related CaratX Content -
These articles are also relevant to the global diamond trade topic and can be used as additional internal links:
Small Diamond Prices Show Early Signs of Recovery: A Detailed Market Analysis for May 2026
Natural Diamond Market 2026: Signs of Recovery, Stability & Premium Demand Growth
Demand for Large and Fancy-Color Diamonds Continues to Rise
URL: https://caratx.com/blog/demand-for-large-and-fancy-color-diamonds-continues-to-rise
Antwerp Signals Recovery, Polished Prices Rise While Rough Still Under Pressure
Frequently Asked Questions -
Q: Which diamond shapes are performing best in 2026? A: Long fancy shapes particularly Ovals, Marquises, and Emerald cuts are consistently outperforming rounds in 2 ct. and larger sizes. Marquises are currently the most expensive fancy shape due to supply constraints. Long Cushions are trading at 20–25% premiums over square cushions.
Q: Why are fancy-shaped diamonds more popular than rounds? A: Several factors drive this trend: elongated shapes offer superior face-up size per carat, appealing to budget-conscious buyers seeking maximum visual impact; millennial and Gen Z consumers value individuality and self-expression; and celebrity influence has amplified the desirability of unique shapes.
Q: How is the lab-grown diamond market affecting natural diamond demand? A: Lab-grown diamonds have created significant price pressure, particularly in smaller, lower-quality categories. However, natural diamonds continue to lead premium segments, with quality, rarity, and provenance driving value in the high-end market.
Q: Which markets are showing the strongest demand growth? A: India is emerging as a key growth driver, with domestic demand supporting larger round diamonds and Gen Z consumers contributing 51% of market value. Hong Kong is on a recovery path, while the US market remains resilient in premium categories despite overall import declines.
Q: What should sellers prioritize in the current market? A: Quality and cut precision are paramount. Very well-cut fancy shapes command significant premiums, while poorly proportioned stones face mounting illiquidity. Sellers should focus on certified goods that meet the market's exacting quality standards.
Q: How can I start selling diamonds internationally? A: CaratX provides a global marketplace connecting diamond, gemstone, and jewelry sellers with buyers in 18+ countries. Register on CaratX to create your seller account and access international B2B and B2C markets.
