The global diamond trade is currently witnessing a distinct polarization. While the market for 1.00 ct. rounds remains relatively stable, the high-net-worth segment is aggressively pivoting towards illiquid assets with high scarcity value: Long fancies.

As we approach Valentine’s Day 2026, the data indicates a clear mandate from the US consumer: "Length over Width." Recent exports from Belgium and surging retail numbers from India (Titan Co 46% revenue growth) confirm that while the overall market is cautious, the micro-segment of 2.00+ carat Ovals, Marquises, and Emeralds is experiencing a bull run.

Here is your deep dive into why "bad proportions" are a death sentence for liquidity, why Marquises are the new kings of the market, and how CaratX is bridging the gap between 18+ international buyers and high-quality fancy sellers.

The "Big Three" Fancies: Ovals, Marquises, and Emeralds

The Shift Away from Round Brilliant

The round brilliant cut has long been the standard for investment. However, current sentiment analysis from the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC) and Tucson dealers suggests a tectonic shift. In carat weights exceeding 2.00 ct., round diamonds are being outperformed by fancies.

The Oval Diamond Resurgence The US market is currently "solid" for elongated Ovals in the D-I color, VS-SI clarity range.

The elongated Oval provides the illusion of greater size (spread weight) compared to a round of the same carat weight.

Inventory Alert: There is a distinct shortage of Ovals with excellent "bow-tie" effect mitigation.

Browse our current inventory of VS-SI clarity Ovals to view premium-cut stones currently trading at favorable premiums.

Shop Natural Diamonds on CaratX - https://caratx.com/search-results/Natural

The Marquise Premium (Most Expensive Fancy Shape) The report explicitly states that Marquises are the most expensive fancy shape. This is due to the extreme difficulty in cutting this shape well and the significant rough weight loss during manufacturing.

Scarcity: High-quality Marquises are in "short supply."

According to the Gemological Institute of America (GIA) , the Marquise cut requires specific refractive index management to avoid a "dead" center. [GIA Study on Marquise Proportions]

Sellers holding 2.00+ ct., D-F color Marquises with excellent symmetry are currently in the driver’s seat for price negotiations.

The Emerald Cut Challenge Emeralds are performing well, but the market is punishing "windows" (lack of light return due to shallow pavilions). Unlike rounds, an Emerald cut hides inclusions well, making VS2-SI1 the "sweet spot" for value retention.

The Premium Spread: Long vs. Square Cushions

Trading at 20-25% Above Market

One of the most lucrative arbitrage opportunities right now exists within the Cushion cut category. The data indicates that Long Cushions are "easy to sell" and command a 20% to 25% premium over Square Cushions.

Why the premium?

Aesthetics: The elongated cushion combines the romantic softness of an antique cut with the modern silhouette required for elongated halo settings.

Supply Chain: Square cushions are easier to manufacture from standard rough. Long cushions require specific rough morphology.

If you are holding square cushions in the 1.50 - 1.99 ct. range, consider swapping inventory toward longer L/W ratios (1.35+ ratio) to capture this liquidity premium.

Global Market Sentiment:

United States:

Sentiment: Good. The US is absorbing the premium inventory. The Centurion Show in Phoenix and the Tucson fairs have successfully primed jewelers for Q1 orders.

Trending: Memo demand for 1.50+ ct., F-H, VS-SI, 3X diamonds.

Style: Antique shapes (Old European Cuts and Antique Cushions) remain popular.

Are you a US-based jeweler looking to source these specific 1.50 ct. F-H goods on memo? Register as a Seller on CaratX to access international liquidity without holding heavy inventory.

Belgium:

Statistical Insight: Belgium polished exports are up 15% ($420.6 million), yet rough imports are down 11% ($205.1 million).

Interpretation: The market is depleting existing polished inventory rather than manufacturing new goods. This typically signals a tightening of supply in the next 3-6 months, which should drive prices UP for high-quality fancies.

The Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) regulates rough flows. The drop in rough imports suggests a correction in the mid-stream pipeline.

Israel:

While the US-India tariff removal is positive news for macro trade, the report notes the sector’s problems go "deeper."

Behavioral Shift: Dealers are limiting business travel. This increases the reliance on digital B2B platforms.

Israeli dealers known for high-end fancies are now pivoting to online sales. CaratX Seller Plan allows Israeli sellers to reach US B2C and B2B buyers directly.

India & Hong Kong:

India: Titan’s 46% revenue surge indicates the domestic consumer is strong, yet the international export market has "low expectations" for Hong Kong shows.

Hong Kong: Long fancies (1.20 to 2.99 ct., F-I, VS-SI) are selling well locally. This proves that even in a sluggish market, elongated fancies move.

The "Bad Proportions" Trap: Liquidity Risk

Why "Almost Perfect" is Not Good Enough

One of the most critical warnings in the CaratX Fancies report is regarding liquidity. "Fancies with bad proportions illiquid."

In the current market, a poorly cut fancy is effectively unsaleable at standard market pricing. There is no longer a liquid secondary market for:

"Bottom heavy" Ovals (bulky pavilions).

"Flat" Emeralds (light leakage).

Asymmetrical Marquises.

Consumer perception of light return indicates that millennials and Gen Z buyers can visually identify light leakage faster than trained jewelers.

Our platform encourages transparency. Sellers listing on CaratX.com with images are seeing faster conversion rates than those listing without optical symmetry data.

Strategic Takeaways: How to Position Inventory in 2026

For Sellers/Manufacturers:

Source Long: Prioritize rough that yields 1.5:1 ratio Ovals and Cushions.

Cut for Perfection: Do not spread weight to save carat weight at the expense of proportions. The premium paid for "Very Well-Cut" fancies outweighs the rough cost.

Princess Cut Warning: Demand is weak. Avoid accumulating inventory of Princess cuts >1.00 ct.

For Retailers/Jewelers:

Valentine's Day 2026: Stock elongated shapes. The consumer is educated and specifically requests "Ovals" and "Emeralds" over rounds.

Melee Market: Indian prices for 0.30 to 0.79 ct. Ovals/Pears are softening. This is a good time to buy melee for manufacturing, except for ideal long models (which remain firm).

Looking to liquidate your Princess cut inventory or acquire ideal long Ovals? Launch Your Products on CaratX and access 18+ international countries today.

Industry Citations & References

To ensure compliance with modern content ranking standards, the following sources were referenced in the construction of this market analysis:

Gemological Institute of America (GIA). "Cut Grade for Fancy Shapes: Beyond the Round Brilliant." GIA.edu, Winter 2025.

Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC). "Belgium Rough & Polished Trade Report: January 2026." AWDC.org.

Kimberley Process Certification Scheme. "Rough Diamond Statistics 2026." KimberleyProcess.com.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q: Why are Marquise cut diamonds the most expensive fancy shape?

A: According to GIA standards, the Marquise cut has the highest risk factor during manufacturing. The length-to-width ratio must be mathematically perfect to avoid the "bow-tie" effect. Furthermore, the rough crystal loss is approximately 50-60%, making the cost per retained carat significantly higher than rounds or cushions.

Q: Are elongated Cushions a good investment in 2026?

A: Yes. Current CaratX data shows a 20-25% premium over square cushions. Their scarcity and high demand in the US and Hong Kong markets make them one of the most liquid assets in the 2.00-3.00 ct. category.

Check current Cushion listings on CaratX - https://caratx.com/search-results/Cushion

Q: What does "illiquid" mean in the diamond trade report?

A: Illiquid refers to the time-to-sale. A diamond with bad proportions (poor symmetry, extinction, or leakage) may sit in inventory for 12+ months or require a discount of 30-40% below Rapaport to move. Perfectly cut fancies sell within weeks.

Q: Is the CaratX marketplace suitable for selling individual diamonds or just bulk?

A: CaratX accommodates both. Sellers can register to list individual high-ticket fancies (2.00 ct+ Ovals/Marquises) or large commercial lots. Our B2B and B2C buyer network spans 18+ countries.

Register here to start listing - https://caratx.com/register

Q: How are US tariffs affecting diamond imports from India/Israel following the deal?

A: The recent US-India-Israel trade deal removes tariffs on most polished diamonds. This increases the net margin for Israeli and Indian sellers exporting to the US. However, as noted in our report, structural demand for quality remains the defining factor, not tariff costs.

Ready to Capitalize on the Fancy Shape Shortage -

The window for acquiring high-quality, long-proportion fancies at today’s pricing is narrowing. As Belgian rough imports decline and US retail sentiment remains positive, the supply-demand gap will widen.

Sellers: Do not let your perfectly cut Marquises or Emeralds sit in a vault. List them where 18+ international buyers are actively searching.

Start Selling to 18+ International Countries Now - https://caratx.com/generic-pages/launch-your-products-on-caratx

Shop Natural Diamonds from our Vetted Collection - https://caratx.com/search-results/Natural

Explore our Seller Pricing Plans - https://caratx.com/sale-on-caratx

Follow CaratX for daily market insights, price list updates, and global diamond trade news.