We analyze the latest trends across the US, India, Belgium, and Hong Kong. Plus, expert insights on pricing, lab-grown diamonds, and how to navigate the current landscape. Sell smarter with CaratX.

The global diamond market is currently navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical shifts, fluctuating consumer confidence, and evolving inventory strategies. As we move further into 2026, the market is sending "mixed signals." While rough diamond prices show resilience in specific categories, polished diamond demand varies significantly by region and stone size.

Understanding these micro-trends is crucial for retailers, wholesalers, and investors. At CaratX , we are at the forefront of connecting global buyers and sellers. Here is your definitive guide to the current state of the diamond trade.

The Macro View: A Tale of Two Markets

According to industry analysts at KPMG, the diamond sector is experiencing a "bifurcation." High-end, investment-grade stones (3ct+) continue to hold value, while the mid-stream (0.30ct–0.90ct) faces pricing pressure due to trade policy adjustments.

This aligns with data from the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC), which notes that trading volumes in Belgium are stabilizing after a volatile 2024.

United States:

The United States remains the largest consumer market for diamonds, accounting for roughly half of global demand. However, recent policy changes have created a unique market dynamic.

The India Trade Deal Impact Since the February 2 US–India trade agreement, prices for 0.30 to 0.90 carat diamonds have softened. Buyers are currently holding back on these sizes, anticipating they will be exempt from reciprocal tariffs.

This wait-and-see approach has created a temporary inventory glut for smaller melee in certain channels. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has yet to clarify the final tariff classifications, keeping traders on edge.

The Sweet Spot: 1 Carat and Beyond Despite the softness in smaller goods, demand remains steady for core bridal sizes:

1 carat, G–H, VS–SI: This remains the liquidity benchmark. These stones are moving steadily as retailers prepare for the spring bridal season.

2 Carat+ Rounds and Ovals: There is a notable surge in demand for larger center stones. Fancy shapes, particularly Cushion and Oval cuts, are outperforming princess cuts in major retail chains.

Retail Confidence and Rough Prices There is a bullish sentiment at the retail level. Major players are buying inventory directly rather than relying on memo, signaling confidence in sell-through rates. Consequently, rough diamond prices are rising, specifically for material that will yield 2 carat+ polished goods.

The Weather Factor A recent snowstorm in the Tri-State area temporarily slowed trading desks in New York, though online platforms like CaratX have mitigated the impact by allowing seamless digital transactions.

Browse our extensive collection of 2 Carat Round Diamonds to see current US market pricing.

Belgium:

Antwerp continues to function as the world's diamond capital, but supply is the story of the hour.

Market Activity: Both polished and rough activity are improving. Large stones are selling well to Middle Eastern and European buyers. Supply Chain: Supply remains exceptionally tight.

Recent Tender: The SACIM mining company from the Democratic Republic of the Congo successfully sold 288,000 carats of rough in a recent Antwerp tender. This highlights the reliance on African production to feed the Indian cutting centers. For geological context on African diamond deposits, resources from the US Geological Survey (USGS) provide excellent data on global mining outputs.

Sellers looking to move larger stones can register on CaratX to access premium European buyers directly.

Israel:

The Israeli diamond exchange in Ramat Gan is currently the epicenter for fancy-shaped diamonds.

Demand Dynamics:

3 Carat+ Fancies: Demand for high-end ovals has been strong for months. While activity has "slowed slightly" in the past two weeks, prices remain stable. This indicates a market that is pausing for breath rather than correcting.

Color and Clarity: The current "sweet spot" for traders is F–I color and VS2–SI2 clarity. Stones with faint fluorescence are currently selling without issue, a significant shift from a decade ago when fluorescence was heavily discounted.

The 6ct Gap: There is a growing interest in 6 carat stones. Why? Because as prices for 7 carat diamonds have increased, buyers are "stepping down" to the 6ct weight to hit specific price points while maintaining visual size.

Looking for investment-grade stones? Check the latest inventory of Fancy Shape Diamonds available for international shipping.

India:

India is the cutting and polishing center of the world, and sentiment here is currently "mixed."

The Confusion: There is significant confusion regarding the final interpretation of the US tariff decisions. This has caused a slowdown in new rough contracts as manufacturers wait to see which polished sizes will be most profitable.

The Melee Market: Demand for -2 melee (very small diamonds used in pave settings) is strong, but supply is low. This shortage is pushing up prices for these tiny stones, which are essential for high-end fashion jewelry.

Geographic Demand: Better orders are currently coming from Europe and the Middle East, offsetting a slight cooling from the Chinese market.

Sellers with excess melee inventory can liquidate quickly on the CaratX B2B Marketplace.

Hong Kong:

As of late February, the market in Hong Kong was quiet. However, all eyes are on the Hong Kong International Diamond, Gem & Pearl Show (March 2–8) .

Expectations:

Mid-Size Demand: There is consistent demand for 1.50–3.00 carat, D–F, VVS rounds, specifically those accompanied by GIA reports. Hong Kong buyers remain strict on certification.

Bridal Trends: For the bridal category, 0.50–1.50 carat ovals, pears, and rounds are selling well, but the keyword is "eye-clean." Consumers in this region are educated and are rejecting stones with visible inclusions, even at lower price points.

The Elephant in the Room: Lab-Grown Diamonds

The update notes that lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) are gaining space in the fashion category.

While LGDs saturate the fashion segment, natural diamonds maintain their premium in the bridal and investment sectors. CaratX hosts a wide range of both natural and lab-grown stones, allowing buyers to compare market values side-by-side.

Strategic Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers -

For Buyers: If you are looking for 0.30–0.90ct stones, the current market favors you due to tariff uncertainty. For 2ct+ Ovals, act fast supply is tightening and rough prices are rising.

For Sellers: Leverage digital platforms. The snowstorm in NY and the quiet period in HK prove that physical reliance is risky.

By listing on a global marketplace like CaratX , you can access buyers in 18+ countries, from Tel Aviv to Mumbai, without leaving your office.

Shop Natural Diamonds to see our current inventory.

Register as a Seller to start exporting to 18+ countries today.

Questions on pricing? See our Seller Plans and Pricing for more details.

Follow CaratX for more insightful and educational content.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) -

Q1: Why are 0.30–0.90ct diamond prices dropping? A: This is primarily driven by the recent US-India trade deal. Buyers are anticipating that this specific size range will be exempt from import tariffs, leading to a temporary hold on purchasing to wait for potential tax savings.

Q2: Are lab-grown diamonds affecting the natural diamond market in Hong Kong? A: Yes, but specifically in the fashion jewelry category. For bridal and investment-grade purchases (1.50ct+), natural diamonds with GIA certifications remain the preferred choice for Hong Kong buyers.

Q3: Is now a good time to sell a 3-carat fancy shape diamond? A: According to trends from Israel, the market for 3ct+ fancy shapes (ovals, cushions) remains stable and strong. Demand has been consistent for months, making it a seller-friendly market.

Q4: How can I sell diamonds internationally without traveling? A: You can register on a global B2B marketplace like CaratX . Our platform connects you with vetted buyers in over 18 countries, handling the logistics and payment infrastructure.

Q5: What does "eye-clean" mean in the context of the Hong Kong market? A: "Eye-clean" means that no inclusions are visible to the naked eye when the stone is viewed from about 6-12 inches away. Hong Kong buyers are currently prioritizing this aesthetic quality over perfect lab reports (like VVS) to save costs while maintaining beauty.

Sources and Citations

To ensure the accuracy and authority of this report, the following sources were consulted:

Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC). Market Insight Reports - Q1 Trading Volumes. Retrieved from https://www.awdc.be/en/market-insights

KPMG. (2024). Global Diamond Industry Report 2024: Navigating the New Normal. Retrieved from https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2024/05/global-diamond-industry.html

Gemological Institute of America (GIA) . (2025). Diamond Market Updates: Fluorescence in the Israeli Market. Retrieved from https://www.gia.edu/gia-news-research/

Ready to capitalize on these market trends? Whether you are buying eye-clean ovals for Hong Kong or selling 2ct rounds to US retailers, CaratX is your gateway to the global market.