The global diamond and jewellery market is navigating a complex landscape shaped by economic pressures, shifting consumer preferences, and geopolitical factors. While some regions show resilience in specific segments, others face significant headwinds. Understanding these nuanced movements is crucial for industry players. Here’s an in-depth, country-by-country breakdown of what's moving, what's slowing, and the strategic shifts defining the industry.

United States:

The U.S. market, the world's largest for jewellery consumption, exhibited a fairly positive holiday season. According to the National Retail Federation, consumer spending in December saw a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, indicating underlying steady demand for gifting items, including jewellery. This resilience is notable amidst inflationary pressures.

However, a palpable sense of market caution prevails. Retailers and wholesalers are anxiously awaiting broader retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau to gauge the sustainability of this trend. The luxury segment, in particular, received a jolt with the news that the owner of the iconic Saks Fifth Avenue filed for bankruptcy protection. This event has raised concerns about the robustness of high-end retail and the channel's stability for luxury jewellery sales.

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Belgium:

Antwerp, the heart of the global diamond trade, is experiencing a clear polarization. The focus has decisively shifted to high-value diamonds. There is strong demand for:

Large stones (5 carats and above)

Fancy colour diamonds (pinks, blues, yellows)

Top-quality D-F, IF-VVS clarity rounds and fancy shapes

Conversely, the market for commercial-quality goods remains challenging. The rough diamond market is in a holding pattern, with significant caution ahead of the next De Beers sight. The data underscores the downturn: Belgium's polished diamond exports for 2025 are down a stark 23%, reaching $6.2 billion. This reflects both weak demand for certain categories and ongoing inventory adjustments across the pipeline.

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Israel:

The Israeli diamond centre continues to face significant challenges. Sales remain slow, and overall sentiment is weak, heavily impacted by ongoing U.S. tariffs on polished diamond imports. These tariffs disrupt traditional trade flows and compress margins. The industry is in a wait-and-see mode, hoping for clarity on a potential U.S.-Israel trade deal that could alleviate the pressure.

The export figures tell the story: Polished diamond exports for 2025 are down 22% at $1.46 billion. This decline is reported to be mainly after returns, highlighting the difficulties in finalizing and maintaining sales in the current environment.

India:

India's market, a crucial manufacturing hub and a growing consumption story, is grappling with multiple cross-currents.

Domestic Shows: Traffic at the prestigious IIJS Bharat – Signature show was sluggish, signaling buyer hesitancy.

Gold Price Impact: Soaring gold prices are altering buying patterns, pushing consumers toward lighter jewellery pieces and lower gold purity (like 18K or 14K over 22K).

Diamond Value Equation: A critical shift is occurring in gold-diamond jewellery. Due to falling diamond prices and rising metal costs, the diamond's contribution to the total value of a piece has shrunk, severely hurting retailer margins.

Manufacturing Caution: Export-oriented manufacturers are highly cautious. They cite a quadruple threat:

Buying Behavior: Prudence reigns. Most buyers are only purchasing against confirmed orders, avoiding inventory risk. The prospect of a recovery in 2026 remains highly uncertain.

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Hong Kong: Stability and Selective Demand

Hong Kong's market is showing relative stability, serving as a bridge between international suppliers and Mainland Chinese demand.

Diamond Segment: Stones in the 1.70 to 3-carat range (particularly G-J, VS-SI qualities) are moving steadily, catering to a specific value-conscious yet aspirational clientele.

Gold Demand: Traditional demand is rising ahead of the Chinese New Year, a key gifting season.

Mainland China Orders: Buyers from Mainland China are actively placing orders for 1-carat, VVS-VS quality diamonds, indicating demand for classic, high-purity goods.

Discount Segment: At the other end, 0.30 to 0.50-carat commercial stones are selling at heavy discounts, reflecting a glut in this size category and softer demand for entry-level pieces.

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Emerging Trends and Strategic Imperatives -

Polarization of Demand: The clear split between high-end, collectible goods (large, coloured, top-quality) and discounted commercial goods is a defining trend. The middle market is being squeezed.

Geographic Diversification: With softness in traditional markets like China and Europe, sellers must actively seek new buyers. Platforms facilitating global trade are becoming essential.

The Lab-Grown Factor: As noted in the India section, lab-grown diamonds are a significant competitive force in specific categories, pressuring natural diamond prices and forcing strategic repositioning.

Digital B2B Adoption: The need for efficiency and global reach is accelerating the shift towards trusted digital B2B platforms that streamline international transactions.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: Why are high-quality, large diamonds still in demand while smaller stones struggle? A: Large, high-quality diamonds are rare, finite assets often viewed as stores of value or collectibles, insulating them from broader economic swings. Smaller, commercial-grade stones are more susceptible to economic sentiment and face direct competition from lab-grown alternatives.

Q2: How can jewellery retailers protect margins when gold prices are high and diamond prices are low? A: Retailers are adapting by emphasizing design and craftsmanship, promoting lighter-weight or hollow jewellery, using lower karatage gold, and focusing on unique pieces where the value is in the artistry rather than just the raw material weight. Sourcing diamonds competitively on global platforms like CaratX can also help preserve margins.

Q3: What is the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global diamond trade? A: Tariffs disrupt established supply chains, increase costs for U.S. importers, and can lead to trade diversion. They encourage buyers to source from non-tariff countries, putting pressure on centres like Israel and benefiting others with free-trade agreements.

Q4: Is now a good time for a business to start selling diamonds internationally? A: Despite market challenges, there is always demand in diversified markets. The key is access to the right buyers. Using a established B2B marketplace can significantly lower the barrier to entry and provide the necessary trust and logistics framework. Start selling internationally today by registering on CaratX.

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